Fiscal Policy , Sovereign Risk , and Unemployment ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
How should fiscal policy be conducted in the presence of default risk? We address this question using a sovereign default model with nominal rigidities. An increase in government spending during a recession stimulates economic activity and reduces unemployment. Because the government lacks commitment to future debt repayments, expansionary fiscal policy increases sovereign spreads, making the fiscal stimulus less desirable. We analyze the optimal fiscal policy and study quantitatively whether austerity or stimulus is optimal during an economic slump.
منابع مشابه
Sovereign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions
We analyze the effects of government spending cuts on economic activity in an environment of severe fiscal strain, as reflected by a sizeable risk premium on government debt. Specifically, we consider a “sovereign risk channel,” through which sovereign default risk spills over to the rest of the economy, raising funding costs in the private sector. Our analysis is based on a variant of the mode...
متن کاملWorking Paper No. 11-43 Sovereign Risk and the Effects of Fiscal Retrenchment in Deep Recessions
We analyze the effects of government spending cuts on economic activity in an environment of severe fiscal strain, as reflected by a sizeable risk premium on government debt. Specifically, we consider a “sovereign risk channel,” through which sovereign default risk spills over to the rest of the economy, raising funding costs in the private sector. Our analysis is based on a variant of the mode...
متن کاملA fiscal theory of sovereign risk
Under certain monetary-fiscal regimes the risk of default and thus the emergence of sovereign risk premiums are inevitable. This paper argues that in this context even small differences in the specification of monetary policy can have enormous effects on the equilibrium behavior of default rates and risk premiums. Under some monetary policy rules studied, the conditional expectation of default ...
متن کاملAnalyzing Fiscal Sustainability
We study the implications of fiscal policy behavior for sovereign risk in a framework that develops a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which for economic or political reasons taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt. A real business cycle model maps the economic environment—expected fiscal policy, the distribution of exogenous disturbances, and private agents’ behavior—into...
متن کاملFiscal Policy and Financial Markets*
We examine the effect of fiscal policy on sovereign risk spreads and investigate whether the interaction of fiscal variables with political institutions affect financial markets. Using panel data from emerging market countries, we find that revenue-based adjustment lowers spreads more than spending-based adjustment. Financial markets also react to the composition of spending. Cuts in current sp...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017